Hurricane Simon remains Category 4 threat off Mexico's Pacific coast

The Big Picture

Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm off Mexico's Pacific coast on Saturday, threatening coastal and mountainous communities with extreme winds, torrential rain, storm surge and destructive surf.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center reported sustained winds between 150 mph and 155 mph in accounts published Saturday and Sunday, leaving Simon just below Category 5 intensity. The storm's path remained uncertain Sunday, with forecasts differing over whether its center would make landfall or remain just offshore as it moved along Mexico's west-central coast.

Mexican authorities suspended classes in coastal areas of Jalisco, began evacuations from at-risk locations and urged residents to shelter as the hurricane passed near the coast.

What Happened

On Saturday evening, the National Hurricane Center said Simon was about 115 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo and could approach or move just inland along Mexico's west-central coast late Saturday or early Sunday. By early Sunday, NPR reported that the eye was about 60 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo and moving north-northwest at about 6 mph.

Later Sunday, Al Jazeera reported that Simon's eye was moving offshore of Jalisco, with winds of at least 150 mph. The publication said it was unclear whether the hurricane would make landfall, though Cabo Corrientes, a cape community in Jalisco, appeared to face the greatest risk of a direct hit.

The differing projections reflected the challenge of tracking a powerful storm moving close to a densely populated stretch of coast. Regardless of whether the center crossed land, forecasters warned that communities near and east of its closest approach could face dangerous impacts.

Why It Matters

The National Hurricane Center warned that Simon could produce 10 to 20 inches of rain across parts of southwestern Mexico. Parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco could receive as much as 30 inches, according to reports citing the center's forecasts.

Such rainfall could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain between the Sierra Madre mountain range and the Pacific. The center also warned of dangerous storm surge near and east of where the hurricane's center made landfall or passed closest to shore, accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Jalisco Governor Pablo Navarro said the storm was generating high-risk marine conditions, with waves reaching as high as eight meters, or about 26 feet. He shared video Sunday that he said showed storm surge affecting beaches, sidewalks and waterways along the Jalisco coast.

Response Along the Coast

Jalisco suspended classes Friday and Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began moving people from at-risk areas, according to Al Jazeera and NPR. Officials also asked hotels and tourism businesses in Puerto Vallarta to ensure workers and visitors could reach shelters or other safe locations.

Businesses in Puerto Vallarta, including hotels, shops and convenience stores, boarded windows and placed sandbags at entrances as conditions worsened. The resort city is a major tourism destination, and preparations unfolded as visitors remained in the area.

Mexico's National Civil Protection Coordination placed 28 municipalities in Jalisco and Colima under its highest cyclone alert level, Al Jazeera reported. Another 93 municipalities were under a high alert level.

President Claudia Sheinbaum urged people in coastal municipalities in Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit and Michoacan to remain sheltered until authorities said the danger had passed.

What Happens Next

The immediate threat depends on Simon's track and how close its core moves to shore. Even if the hurricane remains offshore, its wind field, rain bands and surf could continue affecting Mexico's Pacific coast.

Residents in warned areas were being told to follow civil protection instructions, avoid hazardous coastal conditions and remain alert to flooding and landslide risks as heavy rain continued.